The record

• compression rule (which way a tight range resolved)
  right about 2 times in 10, over 4,644 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  17.7% of 4,644
• momentum read (settled a horizon later)
  right about 6 times in 10, over 1,516 past cases · about a coin toss
  55.0% of 1,516
• range breaks that carried two horizons
  right about 6 times in 10, over 302 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  63.6% of 302
• formations that reached their measured move
  right about 5 times in 10, over 250 past cases · about a coin toss
  48.8% of 250
• heaviest call strike held to expiry
  right about 7 times in 10, over 4,657 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  68.2% of 4,657
• heaviest put strike held to expiry
  right about 7 times in 10, over 4,654 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  66.7% of 4,654
• retracement ratio levels reached
  right about 8 times in 10, over 18,596 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  81.6% of 18,596

• compression rule (which way a tight range resolved)
  right about 2 times in 10, over 971 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  16.6% of 971
• momentum read (settled a horizon later)
  right about 6 times in 10, over 350 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  60.3% of 350
• range breaks that carried two horizons
  right about 6 times in 10, over 95 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  63.2% of 95
• formations that reached their measured move
  right about 3 times in 10, over 59 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  27.1% of 59
• heaviest call strike held to expiry
  right about 4 times in 10, over 984 past cases · about a coin toss
  43.9% of 984
• heaviest put strike held to expiry
  right about 5 times in 10, over 982 past cases · about a coin toss
  49.4% of 982
• retracement ratio levels reached
  right about 8 times in 10, over 3,900 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  78.4% of 3,900

• compression rule (which way a tight range resolved)
  right about 1 time in 10, over 212 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  10.4% of 212
• momentum read (settled a horizon later)
  right 2 of 8 times so far · too few cases to judge
  25.0% of 8
• range breaks that carried two horizons
  right 12 of 18 times so far · too few cases to judge
  66.7% of 18
• formations that reached their measured move
  right 1 of 5 times so far · too few cases to judge
  20.0% of 5
• heaviest call strike held to expiry
  right about 3 times in 10, over 225 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  25.3% of 225
• heaviest put strike held to expiry
  right about 4 times in 10, over 225 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  36.4% of 225
• retracement ratio levels reached
  right about 8 times in 10, over 860 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  77.0% of 860

• compression rule (which way a tight range resolved)
  right about 2 times in 10, over 4,651 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  17.2% of 4,651
• momentum read (settled a horizon later)
  right about 5 times in 10, over 1,424 past cases · about a coin toss
  53.9% of 1,424
• range breaks that carried two horizons
  right about 6 times in 10, over 293 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  62.8% of 293
• formations that reached their measured move
  right about 5 times in 10, over 235 past cases · about a coin toss
  50.6% of 235
• heaviest call strike held to expiry
  right about 6 times in 10, over 4,464 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  63.5% of 4,464
• heaviest put strike held to expiry
  right about 7 times in 10, over 4,421 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  67.2% of 4,421
• retracement ratio levels reached
  right about 8 times in 10, over 18,624 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  79.5% of 18,624

• compression rule (which way a tight range resolved)
  right about 2 times in 10, over 971 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  16.9% of 971
• momentum read (settled a horizon later)
  right about 6 times in 10, over 322 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  58.7% of 322
• range breaks that carried two horizons
  right about 7 times in 10, over 93 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  69.9% of 93
• formations that reached their measured move
  right about 4 times in 10, over 53 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  39.6% of 53
• heaviest call strike held to expiry
  right about 4 times in 10, over 943 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  38.5% of 943
• heaviest put strike held to expiry
  right about 5 times in 10, over 932 past cases · about a coin toss
  48.4% of 932
• retracement ratio levels reached
  right about 8 times in 10, over 3,900 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  77.8% of 3,900

• compression rule (which way a tight range resolved)
  right about 2 times in 10, over 212 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  17.5% of 212
• momentum read (settled a horizon later)
  right 7 of 16 times so far · too few cases to judge
  43.8% of 16
• range breaks that carried two horizons
  right about 7 times in 10, over 22 past cases · too few cases to judge
  68.2% of 22
• formations that reached their measured move
  right 1 of 6 times so far · too few cases to judge
  16.7% of 6
• heaviest call strike held to expiry
  right about 2 times in 10, over 215 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  19.5% of 215
• heaviest put strike held to expiry
  right about 4 times in 10, over 211 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  35.1% of 211
• retracement ratio levels reached
  right about 8 times in 10, over 860 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  76.7% of 860

• compression rule (which way a tight range resolved)
  right about 2 times in 10, over 4,670 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  17.6% of 4,670
• momentum read (settled a horizon later)
  right about 5 times in 10, over 1,483 past cases · about a coin toss
  54.8% of 1,483
• range breaks that carried two horizons
  right about 6 times in 10, over 300 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  62.0% of 300
• formations that reached their measured move
  right about 5 times in 10, over 254 past cases · about a coin toss
  47.6% of 254
• heaviest call strike held to expiry
  right about 7 times in 10, over 660 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  71.8% of 660
• heaviest put strike held to expiry
  right about 7 times in 10, over 660 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  68.5% of 660
• retracement ratio levels reached
  right about 8 times in 10, over 18,700 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  81.3% of 18,700

• compression rule (which way a tight range resolved)
  right about 2 times in 10, over 971 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  16.7% of 971
• momentum read (settled a horizon later)
  right about 6 times in 10, over 350 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  60.3% of 350
• range breaks that carried two horizons
  right about 7 times in 10, over 98 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  65.3% of 98
• formations that reached their measured move
  right about 3 times in 10, over 56 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  30.4% of 56
• heaviest call strike held to expiry
  right about 4 times in 10, over 135 past cases · about a coin toss
  42.2% of 135
• heaviest put strike held to expiry
  right about 4 times in 10, over 135 past cases · about a coin toss
  44.4% of 135
• retracement ratio levels reached
  right about 8 times in 10, over 3,900 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  80.6% of 3,900

• compression rule (which way a tight range resolved)
  right about 1 time in 10, over 212 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  10.4% of 212
• momentum read (settled a horizon later)
  right 2 of 8 times so far · too few cases to judge
  25.0% of 8
• range breaks that carried two horizons
  right 13 of 17 times so far · too few cases to judge
  76.5% of 17
• formations that reached their measured move
  right 1 of 6 times so far · too few cases to judge
  16.7% of 6
• heaviest call strike held to expiry
  right about 3 times in 10, over 30 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  26.7% of 30
• heaviest put strike held to expiry
  right about 3 times in 10, over 30 past cases · worse than a coin toss — the opposite has happened more often
  30.0% of 30
• retracement ratio levels reached
  right about 8 times in 10, over 860 past cases · better than a coin toss, on this record
  77.0% of 860

• morning narrative
  no settled cases yet · too few cases to judge
• headline reads
  no settled cases yet · too few cases to judge

A rate is the share of settled cases where the read matched what followed. "About a coin toss" means the desk's tests could not tell the read from chance — and the desk says so rather than dressing it up. The raw rate and count sit under each line for anyone who wants the arithmetic. The tests behind the gate notes (shuffled controls, both indices, sealed periods) are described in the project record; none of them is a claim about the future.